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Motivation:

To develop essential understandings of the mechanisms of North Pacific climate variability and change that can better guide the formulation of process-based hypotheses underlying the links between ecosystem dynamics and physical climate.

Co-Chairs: S. Minobe (Japan), E. Di Lorenzo (USA), M. Foreman (CAN)

Duration: 3 years

Terms of Reference:

    1. Develop conceptual frameworks and low-order models of North Pacific climate variability and change, which can be used by climate researchers to investigate the mechanisms of those variations and by ecosystem scientists to explore hypotheses linking ecosystem dynamics and physical climate.
    2. Summarize the current understanding of mechanisms of Pacific climate variability and change, and evaluate the strengths of the underlying hypotheses with supporting evidence.
    3. In conjunction with ecosystem scientists, coordinate the development and implementation of process-based models, which include important processes in simple forms, to hindcast the variability of available long-term biological time series.
    1. Develop a method to identify and provide uncertainty estimates of decadal variability in recent historical climate and ecosystem time series.
    2. Provide improved metrics to test the mechanisms of climate variability and change in IPCC models, and in coordination with other PICES working groups and FUTURE Advisory Panels, assist in evaluating those models and providing regional climate forecasts over the North Pacific.
    3. Understand and fill the gaps between what physical models can currently produce and what ecosystem scientists suggest are the important physical forcing factors required for predicting species and ecosystem responses to climate variability and change.
    4. Maintain linkages with, and summarize the results from National and International programs/projects such as CLIVAR, IMBER, US CAMEO, ESSAS, Japanese Hot Spot in the Climate System, POMAL, CREAMS EAST-I, POBEX, and others.
    5. Convene workshops and sessions to evaluate and compare results and maintain an awareness of state-of-the-art advances outside the PICES community.
    6. Publish a final report summarizing results.

 

Video Presentation available at http://o3d.org/web_db_movies/PICES-WG27-TORs.mov

Potential Members

Canada: Patrick Cummins, Mike Foreman

China: Xiaopei Lin, Guimei Liu, Lixin Wu

Japan: Shin-ichi Ito, Shoshiro Minobe, Takashi Mochizuki, Bunmei Taguchi, Sanae Chiba

Korea: Soon Il An, Sang-Wook Yeh, Chang Joo Jang

Russia: Yury Zuenko, Elena Ustinova, Vladimir Kattsov

U.S.A.: Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Enrique Curchitser, Taka Ito, Julie Keister